OTTAWA – The Bank of Canada today announced that it is lowering its target for the overnight rate by one-half of one percentage point to 3 1/2 per cent. The operating band for the overnight rate is correspondingly lowered, and the Bank Rate is now 3 3/4 per cent.
Information received since the January Monetary Policy Report Update (MPRU) indicates that economic growth in Canada through the four quarters of 2007 was broadly in line with expectations. Domestic demand has remained buoyant, as rising commodity prices and high employment have continued to support income growth. Canada's net exports weakened further in the fourth quarter, reflecting the slowing U.S. economy and the impact of the past appreciation of the Canadian dollar. Overall, the Canadian economy remained above its production capacity at year-end. Core and total CPI inflation – at 1.4 per cent and 2.2 per cent, respectively, in January – have also been consistent with the Bank's expectations.
At the same time, there are clear signs that the U.S. economy is likely to experience a deeper and more prolonged slowdown than had been projected in January. This stems from further weakening in the residential housing market, which is adversely affecting other sectors of the U.S. economy and contributing to further tightening in credit conditions. The deterioration in economic and financial conditions in the United States can be expected to have significant spillover effects on the global economy. These developments suggest that important downside risks to Canada's economic outlook that were identified in the MPRU are materializing and, in some respects, intensifying.
The Bank now judges that the balance of risks around its January projection for inflation has clearly shifted to the downside, and, as a result, the Bank is lowering the target for the overnight rate. Further monetary stimulus is likely to be required in the near term to keep aggregate supply and demand in balance and to achieve the 2 per cent inflation target over the medium term.
The Bank will publish a new projection for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, in the Monetary Policy Report on 24 April 2008.
Information note:
The Bank of Canada's next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is 22 April 2008.
For more information and an unbiased view on where rates are headed visit: www.OntarioMortgageTeam.com
Wednesday, March 5, 2008
Wednesday, January 30, 2008
Ready to reinvent your space?
The lure of a stunning gourmet kitchen or sparkling spa-style bathroom may have you chomping at the bit to begin a home renovation but if you heed the advice of experienced renovators, pre-planning and advanced preparation are the secrets to renovation success. Here's a helpful checklist to get your renovation started on the right track.
Prepare a realistic budget
Determine how much you are prepared to spend on your renovation. Obtain a few quotes from professional renovators to see if your budget is realistic. As you refine your plans, your budget can be fine-tuned. Remember to boost your budget by at least 10 % for unexpected costs.
Decide what you want to do
For most people, this is the fun part - flipping through magazines and watching home decorating shows to get inspired. But it is also one of the most critical phases in any home renovation. Create a folder with photos and examples of what you hope to achieve and include a list of issues you want your renovation to resolve.
Arrange for financing
Get financing in place early to plan your renovation with confidence. Leveraging the equity in your home is often the best option. As a secured loan, you can usually obtain an attractive interest rate and with flexible repayments, this option can be easy on your cash flow. Other alternatives include refinancing your existing mortgage or arranging for a second mortgage on your home. To obtain the best possible terms, be sure to work with an independent mortgage professional who can shop the market for you.
Select the right team
You'll want to entrust your project to people known for their quality of work. Depending on what your renovation involves, you may need a designer to come up with an overall design and plan. Your contractor, who does the construction or subcontracts it to other trades people, will work with you or your designer to implement your plan. Ask for recommendations from friends and family, interview prospective candidates and always check references.
Stick with your plan
With a sound plan, reasonable budget, financing in place and a team that you trust, your renovation can get off on the right track. To keep it there, minimize changes and make yourself available for decisions so that your renovations can proceed on schedule. Remember to keep your eye on the prize - it won't be long before the dust settles and you can enjoy your amazing new space.
According to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), Canadians spend substantial sums on renovations - they project more than $50 billion will be spent on home improvement projects in 2008. To make sure you get the most for your renovation dollars, follow the lead of experienced renovators and plan ahead for success.
To receive by email a copy of the complete 11 page CMHC Renovation Report visit: www.OntarioMortgageTeam.com
Prepare a realistic budget
Determine how much you are prepared to spend on your renovation. Obtain a few quotes from professional renovators to see if your budget is realistic. As you refine your plans, your budget can be fine-tuned. Remember to boost your budget by at least 10 % for unexpected costs.
Decide what you want to do
For most people, this is the fun part - flipping through magazines and watching home decorating shows to get inspired. But it is also one of the most critical phases in any home renovation. Create a folder with photos and examples of what you hope to achieve and include a list of issues you want your renovation to resolve.
Arrange for financing
Get financing in place early to plan your renovation with confidence. Leveraging the equity in your home is often the best option. As a secured loan, you can usually obtain an attractive interest rate and with flexible repayments, this option can be easy on your cash flow. Other alternatives include refinancing your existing mortgage or arranging for a second mortgage on your home. To obtain the best possible terms, be sure to work with an independent mortgage professional who can shop the market for you.
Select the right team
You'll want to entrust your project to people known for their quality of work. Depending on what your renovation involves, you may need a designer to come up with an overall design and plan. Your contractor, who does the construction or subcontracts it to other trades people, will work with you or your designer to implement your plan. Ask for recommendations from friends and family, interview prospective candidates and always check references.
Stick with your plan
With a sound plan, reasonable budget, financing in place and a team that you trust, your renovation can get off on the right track. To keep it there, minimize changes and make yourself available for decisions so that your renovations can proceed on schedule. Remember to keep your eye on the prize - it won't be long before the dust settles and you can enjoy your amazing new space.
According to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), Canadians spend substantial sums on renovations - they project more than $50 billion will be spent on home improvement projects in 2008. To make sure you get the most for your renovation dollars, follow the lead of experienced renovators and plan ahead for success.
To receive by email a copy of the complete 11 page CMHC Renovation Report visit: www.OntarioMortgageTeam.com
Tuesday, December 18, 2007
First-time buyers of resale homes to benefit from new tax measure
The McGuinty government is giving all first-time homebuyers a break on land transfer tax by proposing to expand the Land Transfer Tax Refund Program to include purchases of resale homes, Finance Minister Dwight Duncan announced today.
“Expanding this Land Transfer Tax refund is an important part of our government’s commitment to helping Ontarians buying their first home,” Duncan said.
Effective December 14th , first-time buyers of resale homes, as well as newly constructed homes, would be eligible for a refund from the provincial government of up to $2,000 of the Land Transfer Tax paid.
The expanded Land Transfer Tax Refund Program for First-time Homebuyers is part of a package of new tax initiatives announced in the 2007 Fall Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review that would provide $1.4 billion in provincial tax relief for business and people over three years. The government is making strategic investments in people, communities and infrastructure to strengthen Ontario’s economic advantage and help manufacturers and other sectors challenged by current economic conditions.
For more information please visit: http://www.gov.on.ca
“Expanding this Land Transfer Tax refund is an important part of our government’s commitment to helping Ontarians buying their first home,” Duncan said.
Effective December 14th , first-time buyers of resale homes, as well as newly constructed homes, would be eligible for a refund from the provincial government of up to $2,000 of the Land Transfer Tax paid.
The expanded Land Transfer Tax Refund Program for First-time Homebuyers is part of a package of new tax initiatives announced in the 2007 Fall Economic Outlook and Fiscal Review that would provide $1.4 billion in provincial tax relief for business and people over three years. The government is making strategic investments in people, communities and infrastructure to strengthen Ontario’s economic advantage and help manufacturers and other sectors challenged by current economic conditions.
For more information please visit: http://www.gov.on.ca
Friday, November 9, 2007
CAAMP Survey reveals 81% of Canadians satisfied
Canadian Association of Accredited Mortgage Professionals survey shows
longer amortization and flexible terms keep mortgage industry buoyant
The vast majority of Canadians (81 per cent) are happy with the terms of their mortgages thanks in large measure to “good interest rates” and longer amortization options, according to a report released today by the Canadian Association of Accredited Mortgage Professionals (CAAMP). Significantly, thirty seven per cent of Canadians who have taken out a mortgage in the last year have chosen amortization periods of more than 25 years. The information was gathered by Maritz from an online survey of 2,000 Canadians in late September and analyzed in conjunction with CAAMP economist, Will Dunning.
While mortgage rates continue to be the most common factor consumers use to rate satisfaction with their mortgages, consumers are clearly pleased with the many new alternatives they have. Fifty-eight per cent cited more choice for payment options and mortgage terms as reasons for being satisfied with their current mortgage.
“Canadians, particularly first time homeowners, are looking for lending products that can help them enter the market as prices continue to rise,” said Jim Murphy, AMP, President and CEO of CAAMP. “Alternative lending products, such as longer amortizations, with the option to renegotiate terms, are keeping the housing market accessible to a wider range of investors.”
Most Canadians chose their mortgage lender because of the rate offered and most said they sought two or less quotes, suggesting that at least on rates, there is not much difference among institutions. The number of Canadians who have consulted with a mortgage broker remained unchanged from last year at 28 per cent; however for those new mortgages taken out during the last year, the number consulting mortgage brokers rises to 43 per cent. The majority of Canadian mortgage holders continued to consult with one of the major banks when taking out a mortgage.
The survey asked Canadians about the turmoil in the United State’s sub-prime mortgage and housing markets. Most Canadians said they are aware of the events, and that they are concerned about them to varying degrees. However, they see little impact on themselves – even among those who are concerned to some degree, 58 per cent said that the changes in the U.S. have had no effect on their recent decisions.
“Canadian homebuyers are a sophisticated and savvy group,” said Andrew Moor, AMP, CAAMP Chairman. “They have a risk management attitude. Canadians understand that our mortgage market remains strong and stable, even as they continue to keep a close eye on interest rates.”
Growth of residential mortgage credit continues to accelerate – during the past two years, it expanded by an average of $77 billion per year, or 11.4 per cent per year. The volume of residential mortgage credit outstanding is forecast to grow by 11.7 per cent in 2007, 9.3 per cent in 2008 and 8.4 per cent in 2009. Total mortgage credit is projected to reach $963 billion by the end of 2009 and will surpass $1 trillion during 2010.
The mortgage market’s expansion in recent years is related to strong housing market activity. The volume of sales more than doubled (rising by 144 per cent) in the six years from 2000 to 2006, for a growth rate of 16 per cent per year – resulting in a rapidly rising requirement for mortgage financing. Over the same period, outstanding residential mortgage credit expanded at a rate of 8.9 per cent per year.
Canadian attitudes towards buying a home varied according to their locations. Those most negative pointed to high house prices. Those most positive cited low interest rates. When asked if “now is a good or bad time to buy a home in your community,” British Columbians were slightly less positive about buying than a year ago while Saskatchewan and Alberta were the only two provinces where a majority gave a negative response (60 and 59 per cent respectively) reflecting the heated housing markets in those two provinces. In the East, Quebec and Ontario, respondents were more positive about buying at this time.
About CAAMP
Established in 1994, the Canadian Association of Accredited Mortgage Professionals (CAAMP), formerly the Canadian Institute of Mortgage Brokers and Lenders, is Canada’s national mortgage industry association. CAAMP has assumed a leadership role in the industry it serves and has set the standard for best practices for Canada’s mortgage practitioners. In 2004, CAAMP created the Accredited Mortgage Professional (AMP) designation as part of an ongoing commitment to increasing the level of professionalism in Canada’s mortgage industry.
As a membership-based organization, CAAMP strives to develop its network of professionals and to represent the interests of these individuals to government, media and consumers.
CAAMP has attracted over 10,000 members and 1,100 companies from across Canada – representing over 90% of Canada’s mortgage activity. CAAMP members make up the largest and most respected network of mortgage professionals in the country. CAAMP's membership base consists of mortgage lenders, brokers, insurers and other industry participants.
CAAMP’s other primary role is that of consumer advocate. On an ongoing basis CAAMP aims to educate and inform the public about the mortgage industry. Through its extensive membership database, CAAMP provides consumers with access to a cross-country network of the industry’s most respected and ethical professionals.
In September/October 2007, Maritz Research conducted a 21-question telephone survey with 2,000 Canadian consumers. A sample of 2,000 Canadians ensures an accuracy of + 2.2%, 19 times out of 20.
A copy of the complete 39 page survey email anyone of the Ontario Mortgage Team Professionals at:
www.OntarioMortgageTeam.com
longer amortization and flexible terms keep mortgage industry buoyant
The vast majority of Canadians (81 per cent) are happy with the terms of their mortgages thanks in large measure to “good interest rates” and longer amortization options, according to a report released today by the Canadian Association of Accredited Mortgage Professionals (CAAMP). Significantly, thirty seven per cent of Canadians who have taken out a mortgage in the last year have chosen amortization periods of more than 25 years. The information was gathered by Maritz from an online survey of 2,000 Canadians in late September and analyzed in conjunction with CAAMP economist, Will Dunning.
While mortgage rates continue to be the most common factor consumers use to rate satisfaction with their mortgages, consumers are clearly pleased with the many new alternatives they have. Fifty-eight per cent cited more choice for payment options and mortgage terms as reasons for being satisfied with their current mortgage.
“Canadians, particularly first time homeowners, are looking for lending products that can help them enter the market as prices continue to rise,” said Jim Murphy, AMP, President and CEO of CAAMP. “Alternative lending products, such as longer amortizations, with the option to renegotiate terms, are keeping the housing market accessible to a wider range of investors.”
Most Canadians chose their mortgage lender because of the rate offered and most said they sought two or less quotes, suggesting that at least on rates, there is not much difference among institutions. The number of Canadians who have consulted with a mortgage broker remained unchanged from last year at 28 per cent; however for those new mortgages taken out during the last year, the number consulting mortgage brokers rises to 43 per cent. The majority of Canadian mortgage holders continued to consult with one of the major banks when taking out a mortgage.
The survey asked Canadians about the turmoil in the United State’s sub-prime mortgage and housing markets. Most Canadians said they are aware of the events, and that they are concerned about them to varying degrees. However, they see little impact on themselves – even among those who are concerned to some degree, 58 per cent said that the changes in the U.S. have had no effect on their recent decisions.
“Canadian homebuyers are a sophisticated and savvy group,” said Andrew Moor, AMP, CAAMP Chairman. “They have a risk management attitude. Canadians understand that our mortgage market remains strong and stable, even as they continue to keep a close eye on interest rates.”
Growth of residential mortgage credit continues to accelerate – during the past two years, it expanded by an average of $77 billion per year, or 11.4 per cent per year. The volume of residential mortgage credit outstanding is forecast to grow by 11.7 per cent in 2007, 9.3 per cent in 2008 and 8.4 per cent in 2009. Total mortgage credit is projected to reach $963 billion by the end of 2009 and will surpass $1 trillion during 2010.
The mortgage market’s expansion in recent years is related to strong housing market activity. The volume of sales more than doubled (rising by 144 per cent) in the six years from 2000 to 2006, for a growth rate of 16 per cent per year – resulting in a rapidly rising requirement for mortgage financing. Over the same period, outstanding residential mortgage credit expanded at a rate of 8.9 per cent per year.
Canadian attitudes towards buying a home varied according to their locations. Those most negative pointed to high house prices. Those most positive cited low interest rates. When asked if “now is a good or bad time to buy a home in your community,” British Columbians were slightly less positive about buying than a year ago while Saskatchewan and Alberta were the only two provinces where a majority gave a negative response (60 and 59 per cent respectively) reflecting the heated housing markets in those two provinces. In the East, Quebec and Ontario, respondents were more positive about buying at this time.
About CAAMP
Established in 1994, the Canadian Association of Accredited Mortgage Professionals (CAAMP), formerly the Canadian Institute of Mortgage Brokers and Lenders, is Canada’s national mortgage industry association. CAAMP has assumed a leadership role in the industry it serves and has set the standard for best practices for Canada’s mortgage practitioners. In 2004, CAAMP created the Accredited Mortgage Professional (AMP) designation as part of an ongoing commitment to increasing the level of professionalism in Canada’s mortgage industry.
As a membership-based organization, CAAMP strives to develop its network of professionals and to represent the interests of these individuals to government, media and consumers.
CAAMP has attracted over 10,000 members and 1,100 companies from across Canada – representing over 90% of Canada’s mortgage activity. CAAMP members make up the largest and most respected network of mortgage professionals in the country. CAAMP's membership base consists of mortgage lenders, brokers, insurers and other industry participants.
CAAMP’s other primary role is that of consumer advocate. On an ongoing basis CAAMP aims to educate and inform the public about the mortgage industry. Through its extensive membership database, CAAMP provides consumers with access to a cross-country network of the industry’s most respected and ethical professionals.
In September/October 2007, Maritz Research conducted a 21-question telephone survey with 2,000 Canadian consumers. A sample of 2,000 Canadians ensures an accuracy of + 2.2%, 19 times out of 20.
A copy of the complete 39 page survey email anyone of the Ontario Mortgage Team Professionals at:
www.OntarioMortgageTeam.com
Thursday, October 25, 2007
Canadian Boomer Resilience: 84% Not Scared Off Real Estate Despite U.S. Housing Downturn
21% of Canadian baby boomers plan to make a real estate purchase in the next three years, according to a recent Mortgage Intelligence survey -
Eight out of ten (84%) Canadian baby boomers, aged 41-61, state they are not hesitant to consider a real estate purchase despite U.S. housing market volatility, according to a new online survey by Angus Reid Strategies on behalf of Mortgage Intelligence Inc. In fact, 21% of boomers surveyed anticipate making a real estate purchase in the next three years; 63% are not apprehensive about Canadian real estate, but have no plans to purchase within three years; 6% are not considering a Canadian real estate purchase because of the U.S. housing decline; and 10% do not know how they feel about Canadian real estate.
“Canadian boomers are a savvy bunch, and our survey indicates that despite the turmoil in the U.S., they clearly understand the long-term value of real estate,” said John Schipper, President, Mortgage Intelligence Inc. “With approximately 2 million boomers planning to buy a home within the next three years, this segment will be a major driver of the Canadian real estate market.”
Results from two polls commissioned by Mortgage Intelligence, a leading Canadian mortgage brokerage, shed light on some interesting Canadian baby boomer real estate trends:
24% of younger boomers (between the ages of 41 and 54) are more likely to have plans to purchase real estate in the next three years versus 13% of older boomers (between the ages of 55 and 61). (Angus Reid Strategies).
17% of those interested in purchasing real estate are most interested in investment properties, followed by 15% who want to downsize. (Corporate Research Associates).
More younger boomers are looking for out-of the box solutions for generating additional disposable income, including real estate investments observes Barry LaValley, founder and president of the Retirement Lifestyle Centre and Special Advisor to the Scotiabank Group.“ A sub-element of the investment real estate boom is the ‘tear down’ property market. Boomers are seeking out inexpensive properties that can be dressed up and resold for a profit,” said LaValley.
“Real estate clearly remains an important investment strategy for boomers as they plan for their retirement years,” said Schipper. “Every day, our mortgage consultants work closely with these clients to offer consultative service, knowledgeable advice and flexible mortgage solutions to meet their changing lifestyles.”
About the survey
The first poll was conducted by Angus Reid Strategies on September 25, 2007 among a representative sample of 490 Canadian boomers. The results are based on two-sided tests with significance level 0.05. The second poll was conducted by Corporate Research Associates Inc. in a nationwide study of 1,000 baby boomers across Canada between August 10 to September 4, 2007. An overall sample of 1,000 drawn from the population would expect to provide results accurate to within plus or minus 3.1 percentage points 19 times out of 20.
About Mortgage Intelligence Inc.
Mortgage Intelligence Inc. is among the largest and fastest growing mortgage brokers in Canada, with more than 1,000 independent consultants and associates in offices across Canada. Mortgage Intelligence consultants help clients make better mortgage decisions for their home, revenue or vacation properties, renewals, home renovations, debt consolidation needs, and specialized mortgage requirements. The company had funded volumes in excess of $7.8 billion in fiscal year 2006. For more information, visit: www.OntarioMortgageTeam.com
Eight out of ten (84%) Canadian baby boomers, aged 41-61, state they are not hesitant to consider a real estate purchase despite U.S. housing market volatility, according to a new online survey by Angus Reid Strategies on behalf of Mortgage Intelligence Inc. In fact, 21% of boomers surveyed anticipate making a real estate purchase in the next three years; 63% are not apprehensive about Canadian real estate, but have no plans to purchase within three years; 6% are not considering a Canadian real estate purchase because of the U.S. housing decline; and 10% do not know how they feel about Canadian real estate.
“Canadian boomers are a savvy bunch, and our survey indicates that despite the turmoil in the U.S., they clearly understand the long-term value of real estate,” said John Schipper, President, Mortgage Intelligence Inc. “With approximately 2 million boomers planning to buy a home within the next three years, this segment will be a major driver of the Canadian real estate market.”
Results from two polls commissioned by Mortgage Intelligence, a leading Canadian mortgage brokerage, shed light on some interesting Canadian baby boomer real estate trends:
24% of younger boomers (between the ages of 41 and 54) are more likely to have plans to purchase real estate in the next three years versus 13% of older boomers (between the ages of 55 and 61). (Angus Reid Strategies).
17% of those interested in purchasing real estate are most interested in investment properties, followed by 15% who want to downsize. (Corporate Research Associates).
More younger boomers are looking for out-of the box solutions for generating additional disposable income, including real estate investments observes Barry LaValley, founder and president of the Retirement Lifestyle Centre and Special Advisor to the Scotiabank Group.“ A sub-element of the investment real estate boom is the ‘tear down’ property market. Boomers are seeking out inexpensive properties that can be dressed up and resold for a profit,” said LaValley.
“Real estate clearly remains an important investment strategy for boomers as they plan for their retirement years,” said Schipper. “Every day, our mortgage consultants work closely with these clients to offer consultative service, knowledgeable advice and flexible mortgage solutions to meet their changing lifestyles.”
About the survey
The first poll was conducted by Angus Reid Strategies on September 25, 2007 among a representative sample of 490 Canadian boomers. The results are based on two-sided tests with significance level 0.05. The second poll was conducted by Corporate Research Associates Inc. in a nationwide study of 1,000 baby boomers across Canada between August 10 to September 4, 2007. An overall sample of 1,000 drawn from the population would expect to provide results accurate to within plus or minus 3.1 percentage points 19 times out of 20.
About Mortgage Intelligence Inc.
Mortgage Intelligence Inc. is among the largest and fastest growing mortgage brokers in Canada, with more than 1,000 independent consultants and associates in offices across Canada. Mortgage Intelligence consultants help clients make better mortgage decisions for their home, revenue or vacation properties, renewals, home renovations, debt consolidation needs, and specialized mortgage requirements. The company had funded volumes in excess of $7.8 billion in fiscal year 2006. For more information, visit: www.OntarioMortgageTeam.com
Tuesday, October 16, 2007
Bank of Canada keeps target for the overnight rate at 4 1/2 per cent
OTTAWA – The Bank of Canada today announced that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 4 1/2 per cent. The operating band for the overnight rate is unchanged, and the Bank Rate remains at 4 3/4 per cent.
Against a backdrop of robust global economic expansion and strong commodity prices, information received since the July Monetary Policy Report Update (MPRU) indicates that the Canadian economy is now operating further above its production potential than had been previously expected. The core rate of inflation, which has been above 2 per cent for the past year, was 2.2 per cent in August. Total consumer price inflation fell temporarily in August to 1.7 per cent, having been above the 2 per cent inflation target since the spring.
Since the July MPRU, the outlook for the U.S. economy has weakened because of greater-than-expected slowing in the housing sector. The Bank has revised down its projection for U.S. growth to 1.9 per cent in 2007 and 2.1 per cent in 2008. U.S. growth is expected to pick up to 3 per cent in 2009.
The Canadian dollar traded in a range of 93 to 95.5 cents U.S. in July and August, but since then it has appreciated sharply to as high as 1.03 dollars U.S. In the Bank's new base-case projection, the Canadian dollar is assumed to average 98 cents, the mid-point of the range since the July MPRU. As well, there has been a tightening of credit conditions stemming from the financial market developments this summer. For Canada, the Bank assumes that the cost of credit for firms and households relative to the overnight rate will be 25 basis points higher over the projection period than it was prior to the summer developments.
Despite these tighter credit conditions, momentum in domestic demand in Canada is expected to remain strong. The combined effect of a weaker U.S. outlook and a higher assumed level of the Canadian dollar implies, however, that net exports will exert a more significant drag on the economy in 2008 and 2009 than previously expected. As a result, the Canadian economy is projected to grow by 2.6 per cent in 2007, 2.3 per cent in 2008, and 2.5 per cent in 2009. This growth profile implies that aggregate supply and demand will move back into balance in early 2009. Both core and total CPI inflation are projected to return to 2 per cent in the second half of 2008.
In line with this projection, the Bank judges, at this time, that the current level of the target for the overnight rate is consistent with achieving the inflation target over the medium term.
There are significant upside and downside risks to the Bank's inflation projection. On the upside, excess demand in the Canadian economy could persist longer than projected. This could come from two sources: higher growth in household spending than projected and lower growth in productivity than assumed. On the downside, if the Canadian dollar exchange rate were to persist above the 98 cent U.S. level assumed over the projection horizon for reasons not associated with stronger-than-projected demand for Canadian products, Canadian output and inflation would be lower. In addition, the effect of the past appreciation of the Canadian dollar on demand and inflation could be stronger than expected and the effect of the weakness in the U.S. housing sector could be greater than anticipated. All factors considered, the Bank judges that the risks to its inflation projection are roughly balanced, with perhaps a slight tilt to the downside.
A full update of the Bank's outlook for growth and inflation will be set out in the Monetary Policy Report, to be published on 18 October 2007.
Information note:
The Bank of Canada's next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is 4 December 2007.
For current market conditions and up to date rate: www.OntarioMortgageTeam.com
Against a backdrop of robust global economic expansion and strong commodity prices, information received since the July Monetary Policy Report Update (MPRU) indicates that the Canadian economy is now operating further above its production potential than had been previously expected. The core rate of inflation, which has been above 2 per cent for the past year, was 2.2 per cent in August. Total consumer price inflation fell temporarily in August to 1.7 per cent, having been above the 2 per cent inflation target since the spring.
Since the July MPRU, the outlook for the U.S. economy has weakened because of greater-than-expected slowing in the housing sector. The Bank has revised down its projection for U.S. growth to 1.9 per cent in 2007 and 2.1 per cent in 2008. U.S. growth is expected to pick up to 3 per cent in 2009.
The Canadian dollar traded in a range of 93 to 95.5 cents U.S. in July and August, but since then it has appreciated sharply to as high as 1.03 dollars U.S. In the Bank's new base-case projection, the Canadian dollar is assumed to average 98 cents, the mid-point of the range since the July MPRU. As well, there has been a tightening of credit conditions stemming from the financial market developments this summer. For Canada, the Bank assumes that the cost of credit for firms and households relative to the overnight rate will be 25 basis points higher over the projection period than it was prior to the summer developments.
Despite these tighter credit conditions, momentum in domestic demand in Canada is expected to remain strong. The combined effect of a weaker U.S. outlook and a higher assumed level of the Canadian dollar implies, however, that net exports will exert a more significant drag on the economy in 2008 and 2009 than previously expected. As a result, the Canadian economy is projected to grow by 2.6 per cent in 2007, 2.3 per cent in 2008, and 2.5 per cent in 2009. This growth profile implies that aggregate supply and demand will move back into balance in early 2009. Both core and total CPI inflation are projected to return to 2 per cent in the second half of 2008.
In line with this projection, the Bank judges, at this time, that the current level of the target for the overnight rate is consistent with achieving the inflation target over the medium term.
There are significant upside and downside risks to the Bank's inflation projection. On the upside, excess demand in the Canadian economy could persist longer than projected. This could come from two sources: higher growth in household spending than projected and lower growth in productivity than assumed. On the downside, if the Canadian dollar exchange rate were to persist above the 98 cent U.S. level assumed over the projection horizon for reasons not associated with stronger-than-projected demand for Canadian products, Canadian output and inflation would be lower. In addition, the effect of the past appreciation of the Canadian dollar on demand and inflation could be stronger than expected and the effect of the weakness in the U.S. housing sector could be greater than anticipated. All factors considered, the Bank judges that the risks to its inflation projection are roughly balanced, with perhaps a slight tilt to the downside.
A full update of the Bank's outlook for growth and inflation will be set out in the Monetary Policy Report, to be published on 18 October 2007.
Information note:
The Bank of Canada's next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is 4 December 2007.
For current market conditions and up to date rate: www.OntarioMortgageTeam.com
Tuesday, September 18, 2007
Why are Adjustable Rate Mortgage rates on the incease?
Please be aware that there is significant pressure to increase interest rates on Adjustable Rate Mortgages.
The current pricing environment of rates as low as Prime -.90% may not be available for much longer. Some ARMs in the market have already changed to Prime -.50%, a 40 bps increase and I would like to take this opportunity to explain what is happening in the markets today that has caused this shift in product pricing.
In layman's terms, what is happening?
Adjustable Rate Mortgages are typically priced according to the current 30-day Banker Acceptances (BA), which are a very common short-term money market investment, guaranteed by the banks. A lender funding adjustable/variable rate mortgages would typically borrow money through a 30-day Banker's Acceptance. The lender is then responsible for paying the yield (rate of return) to the investor who purchased the BA. This yield is the cost of funding mortgages ("Cost of Funds") to the lender.
So, what's happening to the BA yields?
This is where the story has become interesting over the past few months.
The failure of the U.S. subprime market worried money-market investors. In Canada, investors began to sell off investments creating a strain on the market. Those who remained demanded higher yields from the BA market as no one was sure as to how much of these BA's were used to finance U.S. subprime mortgages, or subprime mortgages here in Canada or other risky ventures. Everyone was asking the same thing: What's the risk exposure? A classic example of the market overreacting.
The resulting increase in BA yields increased the cost of funds for lenders who want to finance their Adjustable Rate Mortgages. Essentially it's costing lenders much more money now to finance ARMs than it did 60 days ago.
The following is a comparison of 30-day Banker's Acceptance yields over the past 60 days:
July 17, 2007: 4.54%
August 3, 2007: 4.60%
August 14, 2007: 4.75%
August 17, 2007: 4.92%
September 11, 2007: 4.98%
September 17, 2007: 5.04%
*Source: Bank of Canada (http://www.bank-banque-canada.ca/)
So, in 60 days we've seen the yield on 30 day BA increase 50 bps.
Now consider the interest rate earned by the lenders on an ARM at Prime - .90%. Today that interest rate is 5.35%. When you compare this to the current Cost of Funds at 5.04%, which doesn't include overhead, profit margin, one can see that it's only a matter of time before prices for ARMs need to change.
How long will this continue?
Are we seeing the end of the days of Prime - .90%? Perhaps for a while, until the money markets settle down.
The silver lining in all this is that due to Canada's continued economic expansion and the reality of an $80+ barrel of oil, our longer term bonds are in high demand. As a result, we might see some interest rate decreases on the fixed rate products.
If you wish further information on how to protect yourself against further increases in rates contact the Ontario Mortgage Team Professional nearest you.
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